IMPORTANT
NOTE
March 21, 2004
SenderBerl has
received some in house intelligence that
there may be an effort this week to
remove weak longs from the Yen. We
wish to make it clear that we do not
profess to follow the Yen on our site to
advise either to buy or to exit a
position. The Yen is up some $5000 a
futures contract since we did our posting
that it was the wise thing for the
government and you to do to support our
country and make a possible profit on it
at the same time. The profit part
has been realized quickly. Thus,
this is to formally note that any further
comment on the Yen will be strictly on
the geopolitical front and that we do not
intend to address it from the investment
side from here on in (or disclose whether
we continue with a position in it). We
have made our point regarding it and we
are glad that the government seems to
have taken hold of it and for those of
you that did the patriotic thing, we are
happy to recognize that the Yen has made
a 5% move so quickly.
MAR 18 04 Deep
Analysis of This Morning's News 
MAR 15 04: Yen
in headlines today -- Fed seems to be
taking the right track
MAR 18 04 FOLLOW-UP
ANALYSIS ON THE JAPANESE YEN
SEE
IMPORTANT NOTE DATED MARCH 21. 2004
ABOVE.
``It is clear the
Ministry of Finance is tolerant of higher
levels'' for the yen, said Marvin Barth,
a currency strategist in London at
Citigroup Inc. who previously worked at
the Federal Reserve. ``The question is
how much further will they let it go?
I'd say not a heck of a lot further. The
last time we approached 105 they halted
its ascent.'' Against the yen, the dollar
fell to 106.71 yen at 1:05 p.m. in New
York from 108.29 late yesterday,
according to EBS prices. It touched
106.40 earlier, its lowest since Feb. 19,
and has
lost 5 percent from a five-month high of
112.33 on March 8.
{Our analysis was issued Friday Mar 5}.
SenderBerl:
This news story just appearing on
Bloomberg makes a false assumption.
Because the BOJ was in control of selling
Yen in purported support of an
"ailing" dollar, to preclude a
precipitous drop in the US dollar during
2003, Bloomberg is assuming that they are
calling the shots as to how high they
will allow it to rise. The Fed at this
point if you adopt our interpretation and
perspective is in control. If Japan was
helping us, then its help in here will be
important to make sure Japanese companies
don't undercut us in global markets due
to the manipulated weakness in their
currency. Now, if
the Fed has found out our proposition was
correct to wit that Japanese
conglomerates were staggering long
positions in the yen (with funds borrowed
at nearly no cost from US banks), while
the BOJ was selling, then the Japanese
have no choice but to diplomatically do
as they are told.
WE BELIEVE
THIS IS THE CASE. OUR POSITION IS THAT
THE YEN SHOULD BE ON PAR WITH THE DOLLAR.
SEE
IMPORTANT NOTE DATED MARCH 21. 2004
ABOVE.
SENDERBERL
BELIEVES THAT IF THE US ECONOMY CAN BE
GENUINELY HELPED; IF WE CAN GET A NEW
PRESIDENT, IF WE CAN KEEP AMORAL
CORPORATIONS OUT OF CONGRESS AND WE CAN
GET A LEADERSHIP RESPECTING OUR
JUDEO-CHRISTIAN ROOTS WHO IS WILLING TO
DO, NOT TALK, AND DEAL WITH THE DRUG AND
EDUCATION PROBLEMS IN THIS COUNTRY, AND
JUST SPEAK THOSE FEW WINNING WORDS TO
RALLY THE COUNTRY TO A GENUINE COURSE,
AMERICA CAN BE RESTORED. YOU SEE WHAT
HAPPENED AFTER OUR JAPANESE YEN ANALYSIS.
WE SENT THAT TO THE HOUSE AND SENATE.
THIS MESSAGE WE SEND TO YOU AND FEEL FREE
TO SEND IT TO THE CONGRESS BY WRITING
YOURSELF OR PICKING UP A PHONE AND
SPEAKING TO YOUR REPRESENTATIVE OR THEIR
AIDS/ASSISTANTS. YOU
CAN AND WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE.
IF YOU READ OUR ANALYSIS ON THE PORTAL
FOR ULTIMATE JUSTICE, YOU WILL RECOGNIZE
THAT YOUR ACTION UNBEKNOWNST TO YOU CAN
AND WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE.
Fed
We Believe Agrees
that a Weak Yen will Harm EU and thus USA
(Material below from Forbes Mar 15 04)
Analysts link that
abrupt move higher to efforts by the Bank
of Japan, which in January and
February bought half of the annual record
set in 2003 of 20 trillion yen ($180
billion).
The greenback spiked lower on Monday,
however, immediately after a Japanese
news wire said the BOJ
was considering abandoning its heavy
interventions at the end of March.
SenderBerl:
The only way the BOJ would abandon them
is if the Fed advised them accordingly.
"Many people still expect this move
up in dollar/yen to run out of steam as
we enter the new fiscal year in early
April," said Marc Chandler, chief
currency strategist at HSBC in New York.
Analysts think Japan hopes to keep the
dollar above 110 yen at least until
Japanese companies report their fiscal
year-end results. A sharply stronger yen
could skew Japanese earnings to the
downside for some international
corporations based in Japan. That, in
turn, could weaken the Japanese stock
market.
SenderBerl:
Stock Markets don't fall for these
machinations and thus we note that the
Senderberl Nikkei model is currently
short.
The same analysts generally think the
dollar would fall sharply below 110 if
the BOJ removed its dollar-supportive
bids.
SenderBerl:
The Yen should as we said below be at par
with the dollar. The Euro Yen
relationship is out of kilter and is very
important since the US needs and wants to
sell to the EU and with a weak Yen US
business are at a disadvantage, the
Japanese truthfully are better
capitalists and businessmen.
We include a
new special commentary by Mr. Ehrlich.
Link here
Link
here to original commentary on Japan and
the Yen
WE
FINALLY ARE HAPPY TO SEE THE FED DO
SOMETHING HELPFUL.
LET'S SEE IF THE YEN DOES RISE VS. THE
DOLLAR AND THE EURO.
DISCLOSURE:
SENDERBERL AS INDICATED BY THE ORIGINAL
ARTICLE IS LONG THE YEN.
Watch
out for Japan (Again)!
MAR
7 2004
It’s
nearly twenty years to the day, and here
we are in 2004 facing the same scenario
we presented to the government originally
in early 1983: Japan is out to benefit
itself at the expense of the U.S. and now
the EU.
Extract
Material Sent to House and Senate
Intelligence Committees
Insert Mar 9
04: One thing we should have made clear: the
Japanese are probably also using U.S.
dollars obtained at nearly no cost to
Japanese international conglomerates from
U.S. banks to help drive the euro higher
to aid its design to obtain unjust EU
market share. The smartest
move the Fed could make in here is to buy
Yen to counter a Japanese strategy the
Japanese do not want to let go. Ultimately
the Yen has nowhere else to go but up.
However, if it moves up when the Japanese
want it to do so, there won't be much
left to the U.S. dollar and the remainder
of American industry left standing when
the Japanese last deployed the strategy
(in the mid 80s) will tumble, buckling
this time even General Motors who will be
squeezed at home and overseas.
Watch
out for Japan (Again)!
MAR
7 2004
It’s
nearly twenty years to the day, and here
we are in 2004 facing the same scenario
we presented to the government originally
in early 1983: Japan is out to benefit
itself at the expense of the U.S. and now
the EU.
Here’s the
story. In Recapturing America we
explain what in fact was the actual case
in 1982-1986. America straddled with high
interest rates sought to lower them
without further sabotaging the U.S.
dollar. Who came to rescue to the glee of
Bush 41 who was then Vice-President:
Japan? However, we warned the Reagan
administration that there was a dark side
to Japan’s aid, and it took
Reagan/Bush 3-4 years to acknowledge it.
Japan lowered its dollar to not only help
the US but primarily to extract vital U.S
market share. With a cheap yen, Japan was
able to penetrate the full spectrum of
U.S. markets, undercut and eviscerate U.S
manufacturers, to lay the foundation
allowing it to unjustly become the
economic juggernaut it subsequently
became. When the Reagan/Bush
administration then sought in 1986 to
raise the Yen and lower the dollar, Japan
was ready. They used the soaring yen to
convert them back into U.S. dollars to
buy America. It then took another decade
to straighten it out. This is outlined in
Bush’s Mission: Expecting the
Second Platform of Moral Outrage. www.senderberl.com/BMI.PDF (pages 3-4).
Now, on Friday we saw
ALL the foreign currencies rise against
the poor U.S. job data, but who was out
there selling the Yen, $20 billion of it,
after selling trillions this past year to
“support the dollar?” Yes, the
Bank of Japan. SenderBerl has analyzed
that the Japanese are targeting primarily
the EU market and with a strong euro and
weak yen they aim to do the same to the
EU as they did to America. However, the
spill over of the Japanese game plan will
take out whatever central industry in the
U.S. was not undermined in the 80s.
http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/business/national/8117317.htm?template=contentModules/printstory.jsp
Posted on Fri, Mar.
05, 2004
GM's CEO Criticizes
Japan's Yen-Selling Interventions
Kyodo News International, Tokyo Knight
Ridder/Tribune Business News
Mar. 4--NEW YORK - Rick
Wagoner, chief executive officer of
General Motors Corp., criticized Japan's
recent efforts to lower the value of the
yen, saying it gives Japanese carmakers
an unfair pricing advantage on each car
they sell in the United States.Wagoner
said in an interview published Thursday
in the Wall Street Journal that the
Ministry of Finance's purchases of
billions of dollars in international
currency markets lower the cost of
Japanese-made engines and other
components that companies like Toyota
Motor Corp. use in cars assembled at
their U.S. plants. "If the currency
is 10 percent stronger than it should be,
and you're talking about a $25,000
vehicle, it's hundreds to thousands of
dollars," Wagoner said in the
interview. Wagoner made the remarks after
Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan
Greenspan called Japan's currency
interventions "awesome." In a
speech Tuesday at the Economic Club of
New York, Greenspan issued a warning
against Japan's continued massive
currency market intervention aimed at
stemming the yen's appreciation against
the dollar. "The current performance
of the Japanese economy suggests that we
are getting closer to the point where
continued intervention at the present
scale will no longer meet the monetary
policy needs of Japan," Greenspan
said.In January and February, Japan's
Ministry of Finance spent $100 billion in
currency markets, mostly to buy
dollars.Wagoner said these purchases and
others in 2003 "artificially
lower" the value of the yen against
the dollar, and tilt the playing field in
the U.S. in favor of Japanese carmakers.
So if the
Bush administration was out there to keep
the dollar low to bolster American
business then are they going to take the
same tactic and abuse heaped upon them by
Japan in the 1980s?
We trust not.
So unless the
Japanese Yen starts to climb, you can
expect to see GM and other domestic US
manufacturers in international markets
start to crumble in market price.
Another
key dynamic exclusive to you from
SenderBerl.
When the Japanese are
selling Yen in the billions and trillions
for dollars who is buying the Yen?
Our perspective is
that Japanese are playing a shell game
here. We believe Japanese conglomerates
are buying the Yen with both fists and
using dollars extracted from US business
operations (including
low cost loans from US banks). Thus they are
moving floundering dollars into
ultimately strong Yen, which if 1982-1986
is being replayed, will become strong
again when expanded EU market share is
achieved and the sideshow will be a US
dollar looking for a grave marker.
Perhaps Bush wants to
blame the Japanese for the collapse of
the U.S. dollar and U.S. economy. If Bush
43 allows this to happen then the last of
US businesses not compromised by Japan in
the 80s will now be compromised 20 years
later.
Thus, if the euro
rises, the Yen had better rise too. The
best investment the Fed can make and we
believe we all can make is to buy the Yen
to help our country. The Yen should
at minimum from our assessment be at par
with the U.S. dollar at this point of
time and thus we have taken our position
for patriotic reasons and to
potentially profit at the same time.
When we read that the
Japanese government is selling Yen we get
angry when the reports don't better
indicate who is buying when Japan
is selling. The speculators are
riding off Japan's economic strategy, so
they are not buying but selling yen and
thus helping the Japanese ploy. Thus you
can’t accept that the pros are
buying Yen when the Yen is falling based
on Bank of Japan intervention. We
believe the buyers are Japanese
international conglomerates. They
laughed at us once. We don’t want to
see it again. We have enough problems
already.
Full Disclosure:
Sender, Berl & Sons Inc. is long the
Yen
Past Success is no
indication of future success.
Investing in futures
and derivatives is subject to risk of
serious loss of capital
To: House and Senate
Intelligence Committee Members
From: Sender, Berl & Sons Inc.
Re: Watch Out for Japan (Again!)
Date: March 7, 2004
Sender, Berl & Sons Inc., who
communicated to you on October 11, 2001
detected plans in hand by the Bush
administration to occupy Middle East
countries to control Islamic nuclear
and Islamic oil, theretofore in early
1983 warned the Reagan/Bush
administration of the Japanese ploy to
sell Yen to bolster the US dollar in
order to seize massive US market share.
Now, it appears that the same ploy is in
play to capture unjust market share in
the EU. The collateral damage will
negatively impact whatever US industry
survived the 80s onslaught by Japan.
The worst part of it however is our
assessment that Japanese international
conglomerates and all their affiliates have
borrowed massive amounts of US dollars
from US banks at favorable interest rates
to finance their ploy. Thus, US
monetization has been utilized by Japan
to spur the Bank of Japan's effort to
contain the Yen at the expense of a
soaring euro. Moreover, with all the
hallmarks of a shell game, the
beneficiaries of the Bank of Japan's
grandiose design in publicly selling yen
to aid the US, again will be Japan itself
via its business cartels working hand in
hand with the Bank of Japan, who will not
only achieve unjust EU market share but
pay back the dollars borrowed when the
yen, as it must, ultimately soars in
response to US and global criticism.
However, again, at that point, the damage
will be done.
Further, of course, the US monetization,
resulting in a historically weak US
dollar, doesn't achieve the full
economic benefits intended for the US,
since the capital is deployed to serve
the Japanese scheme, the very same one it
took the Bush/Reagan administration
nearly four years to confirm as true and
then another decade for the US to unravel
from.
We have expounded upon this design at www.senderberl.com/fp/notes.htm#japan. We have
also referenced the 80s design by Japan
to secure unjust market share (where it
carried the further design to undermine
the U.S. dollar) on pages 2-3 at www.senderberl.com/BMI.PDF.
***
We are also taking
this opportunity to advise that
SenderBerl has recently made the four
interpretations below, which have
unraveled and are unraveling as true,
addressed in a posted article at http://www.rense.com/general49/men.htm.
NOVEMBER 2003: SBS SAYS HIS OWN
SUPPORTERS WILL NOT ALLOW BUSH TO WIN
RE-ELECTION.
DECEMBER 2003: SBS EXPLAINS WHY
GORE SUPPORT FOR DEAN INDICATES HE WILL
BE UNDERMINED AS THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE.
JANUARY 2004: SBS DECLARES KERRY
THE NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
FEBRUARY 2004: SBS DECLARES THAT
GEPHARDT WILL BE KERRY'S RUNNING MATE
***
Finally,
Sender, Berl & Sons in addressing the
controversy of the Mel Gibson movie,
respectfully submitted, touched upon
dynamics that could truly beneficially
resolve issues in the Middle East. We
therefore direct your attention to: www.rense.com/general49/comm.htm.
In the sincere aspiration to believe that
the Congress continues to honor the U.S.
Constitution and to preserve and protect
the form of government provided thereby,
we have submitted the above to help
assure the proper discharge of its
oversight role over the miscarriages of
government by the sitting executive
branch of government.
Joseph B. Ehrlich, President
Sender, Berl & Sons Inc.
March 7, 2004
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